The Monty Hall Problem: It’s a Piece of Cake
In chapter 1 of Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker’s new book, Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters, Pinker discusses the so-called “Monty Hall problem”, which concerns the tricky probabilities involved in a game-show that is similar to the old TV game show “Let’s Make a Deal”. In the game, there are three numbered doors, and a prize exists behind only one of the doors. The player chooses one of three numbered doors. Game host Monty Hall – who knows behind which of the three doors there is a prize – then eliminates one of the two remaining doors. However, the rules of the game do not allow Monty to eliminate a door having a prize behind it. Monty then asks the player whether she would like to trade her door for the one remaining door.
The Monty Hall problem asks: To maximize her chance of winning the prize, should the player trade her door for the remaining door? Interestingly, according to Pinker, most people answer that there is no point in switching doors because – there being only two doors left – the prize is just as likely to be behind one door as it is to be behind the other remaining door (i.e., there is a 50/50 chance of choosing correctly). However, the mathematically correct answer to the question is that the player should trade her door for the other remaining door, because there is a 2/3rds chance that the prize is behind the door Monty did not eliminate, and their remains only a 1/3rd chance that the prize is behind the door initially chosen by the player. Read the story »
Is Your Government Playing Games with CoronaVirus and Covid-19 Names?
In times of great fear and anxiety, uncertainty and confusion does not help. It is particularly unhelpful when the confusion is deliberate. I am referring to the widespread practice – particularly by governments and some in the mainstream media – of referring to the CoronaVirus, and to CoronaVirus testing, as “Covid-19” or “Covid-19 testing”. Read the story »
Canada is repealing its anti-blasphemy law
Canada’s federal and provincial legislatures have passed motions condemning “Islamophobia” and calling for studies and recommendations to oppose speech that does not revere religious beliefs or practices, but Canada’s Justice Minister yesterday introduced a bill that will – if passed into law – repeal Canada’s law against “blasphemous libel”. Read the story »
Reality
McKeever’s Minimal Maxims and Bon Arrows, Volume 2, Issue 6Causes, patterns and the determined depend not, for their existences, upon your perception or prediction...
Reason
Love my substratum: A philosophical note on Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged”In the history of philosophy, there are at least two famous instances of positing the existence of an...
Self
The Coronavirus’ Dark-siders, Straddlers, and Light-siders: The Ethics of Good Public PolicyAs the spread of the latest Coronavirus (SARS coronavirus 2, or “SARS-CoV-2”) continues,...
Consent
Government decision making: Why political philosophy is the last considerationSome friends of mine were chatting via email about a high profile Objectivist, and a semi-well known...
Capitalism
“Price Gouging” vs. Hoarding: Why Premier Doug Ford Owes Pusateri’s An ApologyPusateri’s is a Toronto retailer that is being attacked on social media for reportedly charging...
The 5 Most Recent
The Monty Hall Problem: It’s a Piece of CakeIn chapter 1 of Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker’s new book, Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters,...
THE “RIGHTS ARGUMENT”: A SELF-DESTRUCTIVE PERVERSION OF RIGHTSI recently penned a Freedom Party of Ontario position paper that called for government to ban store owners and others from denying...
Government decision making: Why political philosophy is the last considerationSome friends of mine were chatting via email about a high profile Objectivist, and a semi-well known libertarian (of the expressly...
Why face masks might not be mandatory in Durham Region after allYou may have seen in the news that it will be mandatory to wear a mask in commercial establishments in the Durham Region starting at...
Is Your Government Playing Games with CoronaVirus and Covid-19 Names?In times of great fear and anxiety, uncertainty and confusion does not help. It is particularly unhelpful when the confusion is deliberate....
