Top

The Monty Hall Problem: It’s a Piece of Cake

October 31, 2021 by · Comments Off on The Monty Hall Problem: It’s a Piece of Cake 

In chapter 1 of Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker’s new book, Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters, Pinker discusses the so-called “Monty Hall problem”, which concerns the tricky probabilities involved in a game-show that is similar to the old TV game show “Let’s Make a Deal”.  In the game, there are three numbered doors, and a prize exists behind only one of the doors. The player chooses one of three numbered doors. Game host Monty Hall – who knows behind which of the three doors there is a prize – then eliminates one of the two remaining doors. However, the rules of the game do not allow Monty to eliminate a door having a prize behind it. Monty then asks the player whether she would like to trade her door for the one remaining door.

The Monty Hall problem asks: To maximize her chance of winning the prize, should the player trade her door for the remaining door?  Interestingly, according to Pinker, most people answer that there is no point in switching doors because – there being only two doors left – the prize is just as likely to be behind one door as it is to be behind the other remaining door (i.e., there is a 50/50 chance of choosing correctly). However, the mathematically correct answer to the question is that the player should trade her door for the other remaining door, because there is a 2/3rds chance that the prize is behind the door Monty did not eliminate, and their remains only a 1/3rd chance that the prize is behind the door initially chosen by the player. Read more

THE “RIGHTS ARGUMENT”: A SELF-DESTRUCTIVE PERVERSION OF RIGHTS

September 9, 2021 by · Comments Off on THE “RIGHTS ARGUMENT”: A SELF-DESTRUCTIVE PERVERSION OF RIGHTS 

I recently penned a Freedom Party of Ontario position paper that called for government to ban store owners and others from denying service to people who have not been “vaccinated” against Covid-19 (or against those who have). Three proponents of individual freedom wrote e-mails in response. Each rejected both my conclusion and my rationale. Their counter-arguments, in each case, were to the effect that a ban would violate an individual’s rights and improperly increase the scope of government power. I will here assert that, to the contrary, those writers hold a view of “rights” and government that improperly perverts the purpose of “rights” and of government, and that facilitates the use of law to defeat capitalism and promote fascism. Read more

Government decision making: Why political philosophy is the last consideration

March 29, 2021 by · Comments Off on Government decision making: Why political philosophy is the last consideration 

Some friends of mine were chatting via email about a high profile Objectivist, and a semi-well known libertarian (of the expressly anarchistic bent). They expressed concern that the Objectivist in question has said some things, or acted in ways, that reflect poorly on the philosophy of Ayn Rand, including positions on immigration, vaccines, or an interminable monomania about “Trump”. My friends essentially said that these two individuals nonetheless seem to get a lot of things right with respect to capitalist economics. I replied as follows. Read more